US County-Level Variation in Preterm Birth Rates, 2007-2019.

Importance: Preterm birth is a leading cause of preventable neonatal morbidity and mortality. Preterm birth rates at the national level may mask important geographic variation in rates and trends at the county level. Objective: To estimate age-standardized preterm birth rates by US county from 2007 to 2019. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial cross-sectional study used data from the National Center for Health Statistics composed of all live births in the US between 2007 and 2019. Data analyses were performed between March 22, 2022, and September 29, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized preterm birth (<37 weeks' gestation) and secondarily early preterm birth (<34 weeks' gestation) rates by county and year calculated with a validated small area estimation model (hierarchical bayesian spatiotemporal model) and percent change in preterm birth rates using log-linear regression models. Results: Between 2007 and 2019, there were 51 044 482 live births in 2383 counties. In 2007, the national age-standardized preterm birth rate was 12.6 (95% CI, 12.6-12.7) per 100 live births. Preterm birth rates varied significantly among counties, with an absolute difference between the 90th and 10th percentile counties of 6.4 (95% CI, 6.2-6.7). The gap between the highest and lowest counties for preterm births was 20.7 per 100 live births in 2007. Several counties in the Southeast consistently had the highest preterm birth rates compared with counties in California and New England, which had the lowest preterm birth rates. Although there was no statistically significant change in preterm birth rates between 2007 and 2019 at the national level (percent change, -5.0%; 95% CI, -10.7% to 0.9%), increases occurred in 15.4% (95% CI, 14.1%-16.9%) of counties. The absolute and relative geographic inequalities were similar across all maternal age groups. Higher quartile of the Social Vulnerability Index was associated with higher preterm birth rates (quartile 4 vs quartile 1 risk ratio, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.31-1.36), which persisted across the study period. Similar patterns were observed for early preterm birth rates. Conclusions and Relevance: In this serial cross-sectional study of county-level preterm and early preterm birth rates, substantial geographic disparities were observed, which were associated with place-based social disadvantage. Stability in aggregated rates of preterm birth at the national level masked increases in nearly 1 in 6 counties between 2007 and 2019.

Health, economic, and equity consequences of future tobacco control policies in England: a microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Smoking still generates a huge, costly, and inequitable burden of disease. The UK tobacco-free generation target to reduce smoking prevalence to below 5% by 2030 will be missed if current trends continue. We aimed to determine whether additional policies could speed progress towards meeting the tobacco-free generation target. METHODS: We developed, calibrated, and validated a microsimulation model, IMPACTHINT simulating English adults aged 30-89 years from 2023 to 2072. The model included a detailed smoking history and quantified policy health outcomes including smoking prevalence and smoking-related diseases, economics, and equity. We simulated five scenarios: (1) baseline trends; (2) increasing the minimum age of access to tobacco to 21 years (MinAge21); (3) a 30% increase in tobacco duty (TaxUP); (4) improved smoking cessation services (ServicesUP); and (5) a combination of TaxUP and ServicesUP. We estimated the smoking prevalence, smoking-related diseases and cumulative cases prevented or postponed, and deaths. We evaluated the scenario cost-effectiveness from the societal perspective. Lastly, we analysed the results by deprivation quintile. We present in our findings cumulative cases prevented or postponed over 50 years. FINDINGS: None of the scenarios would reduce overall smoking prevalence to below 5% by 2030. However, that goal could be reached by 2035 under the TaxUP and the combination of TaxUP and ServicesUP scenarios, by 2037 under the ServicesUP scenario, or by 2038 under the MinAge21 and the baseline scenarios. By 2072, the combined scenario might reduce smoking-related diseases by 160 000 cases (95% CI 140 000-200 000), greatly exceeding the reductions by 140 000 cases (120 000-180 000) with TaxUP, 69 000 cases (53 000-86 000) with MinAge21, or 22 000 cases (14 000-31 000) with ServicesUP. Some 50% of all disease-years reduced by TaxUP would occur in the most deprived quintile. The most affluent quintile could reach the 5% goal sooner than the most deprived quintile (by 2032 for the least deprived vs 2038 for the most deprived), and it could reach the 5% target by 2030 under the combined TaxUP and ServicesUP scenario. Finally, all policies would save costs compared with the baseline trend. INTERPRETATION: Affluent groups will achieve the 5% tobacco-free goal a decade sooner than the most deprived. However, that goal could be achieved in all groups by 2035 through a 30% increase in tax and enhanced smoking cessation services. Our limitations included the uncertainties of any 50-year forecast. However, that long time-horizon can capture the potential policy benefits for younger age groups. FUNDING: Economic and Social Research Council.

Putting a price on healthy eating: public perceptions of the need for further food pricing policies in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Understand factors that influence food choice and explore public perceptions of the need for government policies to improve diets in the UK, particularly food pricing interventions. METHODS: A qualitative study design was used with semi-structured interviews. The study was carried out in Greater Manchester, England. In all, 15 participants from a diverse range of backgrounds were recruited. RESULTS: Food price, lack of time, availability, and food knowledge and culture were key factors that led some study participants towards unhealthy food choices. The UK's individual, willpower-focused approach to tackling obesity was deemed ineffective and many participants supported further government intervention. Product reformulation was supported as a less intrusive and less regressive way of improving diets than taxation. There was also support for increasing cooking classes within schools. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst the government ambition to half childhood obesity by 2030 is welcome, population level interventions that enable healthier food choices are needed to achieve this goal. Rising global food prices may make reformulation a more practical policy option than further pricing interventions. Mandatory reformulation of convenience meal and snack products and strengthening education in schools may represent a publicly acceptable and effective package of interventions within a comprehensive strategy to tackle obesity.

Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

Background: We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures. Methods: We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan. Findings: In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women). Interpretation: After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures. Funding: This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.

Identifying best modelling practices for tobacco control policy simulations: a systematic review and a novel quality assessment framework.

BACKGROUND: Policy simulation models (PSMs) have been used extensively to shape health policies before real-world implementation and evaluate post-implementation impact. This systematic review aimed to examine best practices, identify common pitfalls in tobacco control PSMs and propose a modelling quality assessment framework. METHODS: We searched five databases to identify eligible publications from July 2013 to August 2019. We additionally included papers from Feirman et al for studies before July 2013. Tobacco control PSMs that project tobacco use and tobacco-related outcomes from smoking policies were included. We extracted model inputs, structure and outputs data for models used in two or more included papers. Using our proposed quality assessment framework, we scored these models on population representativeness, policy effectiveness evidence, simulated smoking histories, included smoking-related diseases, exposure-outcome lag time, transparency, sensitivity analysis, validation and equity. FINDINGS: We found 146 eligible papers and 25 distinct models. Most models used population data from public or administrative registries, and all performed sensitivity analysis. However, smoking behaviour was commonly modelled into crude categories of smoking status. Eight models only presented overall changes in mortality rather than explicitly considering smoking-related diseases. Only four models reported impacts on health inequalities, and none offered the source code. Overall, the higher scored models achieved higher citation rates. CONCLUSIONS: While fragments of good practices were widespread across the reviewed PSMs, only a few included a 'critical mass' of the good practices specified in our quality assessment framework. This framework might, therefore, potentially serve as a benchmark and support sharing of good modelling practices.

Quantifying benefits of the Danish transfat ban for coronary heart disease mortality 1991-2007: Socioeconomic analysis using the IMPACTsec model.

Denmark has experienced a remarkable reduction in CVD mortality over recent decades. The scale of the health contribution from the Danish regulation on industrially produced trans fatty acid (ITFA) has therefore long been of interest. Thus the objective was to determine health and equity benefits of the Danish regulation on ITFA content in Danish food, by quantifying the relative contributions of changes in ITFA intake, other risk factors and treatments on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality decline from 1991 to 2007 in Denmark, stratified by socioeconomic group. To evaluate the effects of the ITFA ban (Danish Order no. 160 of March 2003) the Danish IMPACTSEC model was extended to quantify reductions in CHD deaths attributable to changes in ITFA (%E) intake between 1991-2007. Population counts were obtained from the Danish Central Office of Civil Registration, financial income from Statistics Denmark and ITFA intake from Dan-MONICA III (1991) and DANSDA (2005-2008). Participants were adults aged 25-84 years living in Denmark in 1991 and 2007, stratified by socioeconomic quintiles. The main outcome measure was CHD deaths prevented or postponed (DPP). Mean energy intake from ITFA was decimated between 1991 and 2007, falling from 1.1%E to 0.1%E in men and from 1·0%E to 0·1%E in women. Approximately 1,191 (95% CI 989-1,409) fewer CHD deaths were attributable to the ITFA reduction, representing some 11% of the overall 11,100 mortality fall observed in the period. The greatest attributable mortality falls were seen in the most deprived quintiles. Adding ITFA data to the original IMPACTsec model improved the overall model fit from 64% to 73%. In conclusion: Denmark's mandatory elimination of ITFA accounted for approximately 11% of the substantial reduction in CHD deaths observed between 1991 and 2007. The most deprived groups benefited the most, thus reducing inequalities. Adopting the Danish ITFA regulatory approach elsewhere could substantially reduce CHD mortality while improving health equity.

Association of Birth Year of Pregnant Individuals With Trends in Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy in the United States, 1995-2019.

Importance: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are leading causes of morbidity and mortality among pregnant individuals as well as newborns, with increasing incidence during the past decade. Understanding the individual associations of advancing age of pregnant individuals at delivery, more recent delivery year (period), and more recent birth year of pregnant individuals (cohort) with adverse trends in hypertensive disorders of pregnancy could help guide public health efforts to improve the health of pregnant individuals. Objective: To clarify the independent associations of delivery year and birth year of pregnant individuals, independent of age of pregnant individuals, with incident rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This serial cross-sectional study of 38 141 561 nulliparous individuals aged 15 to 44 years with a singleton, live birth used 1995-2019 natality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Exposures: Year of delivery (period) and birth year (cohort) of pregnant individuals. Main Outcomes and Measures: Rates of incident hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, defined as gestational hypertension, preeclampsia, or eclampsia, recorded on birth certificates. Generalized linear mixed models were used to calculate adjusted rate ratios (aRRs) comparing the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy in each delivery period (adjusted for age and cohort) and birth cohort (adjusted for age and period) with the baseline group as the reference for each. Analyses were additionally stratified by the self-reported racial and ethnic group of pregnant individuals. Results: Of 38 141 561 individuals, 20.2% were Hispanic, 0.8% were non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, 6.5% were non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, 13.9% were non-Hispanic Black, and 57.8% were non-Hispanic White. Among pregnant individuals who delivered in 2015 to 2019 compared with 1995 to 1999, the aRR for the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was 1.59 (95% CI, 1.57-1.62), adjusted for age and cohort. Among pregnant individuals born in 1996 to 2004 compared with 1951 to 1959, the aRR for the incidence of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy was 2.61 (95% CI, 2.41-2.84), adjusted for age and period. The incidence was higher among self-identified non-Hispanic Black individuals in each birth cohort, with similar relative changes for period (aRR, 1.76 [95% CI, 1.70-1.81]) and cohort (aRR, 3.26 [95% CI, 2.72-3.91]) compared with non-Hispanic White individuals (period: aRR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.57-1.63]; cohort: aRR, 2.53 [95% CI, 2.26-2.83]). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study suggests that more recent birth cohorts of pregnant individuals have experienced a doubling of rates of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, even after adjustment for age and delivery period. Substantial racial and ethnic disparities persisted across generations.

What will the cardiovascular disease slowdown cost? Modelling the impact of CVD trends on dementia, disability, and economic costs in England and Wales from 2020-2029.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty around the health impact and economic costs of the recent slowing of the historical decline in cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and the future impact on dementia and disability. METHODS: Previously validated IMPACT Better Ageing Markov model for England and Wales, integrating English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) data for 17,906 ELSA participants followed from 1998 to 2012, linked to NHS Hospital Episode Statistics. Counterfactual design comparing two scenarios: Scenario 1. CVD Plateau-age-specific CVD incidence remains at 2011 levels, thus continuing recent trends. Scenario 2. CVD Fall-age-specific CVD incidence goes on declining, following longer-term trends. The main outcome measures were age-related healthcare costs, social care costs, opportunity costs of informal care, and quality adjusted life years (valued at £60,000 per QALY). FINDINGS: The total 10 year cumulative incremental net monetary cost associated with a persistent plateauing of CVD would be approximately £54 billion (95% uncertainty interval £14.3-£96.2 billion), made up of some £13 billion (£8.8-£16.7 billion) healthcare costs, £1.5 billion (-£0.9-£4.0 billion) social care costs, £8 billion (£3.4-£12.8 billion) informal care and £32 billion (£0.3-£67.6 billion) value of lost QALYs. INTERPRETATION: After previous, dramatic falls, CVD incidence has recently plateaued. That slowdown could substantially increase health and social care costs over the next ten years. Healthcare costs are likely to increase more than social care costs in absolute terms, but social care costs will increase more in relative terms. Given the links between COVID-19 and cardiovascular health, effective cardiovascular prevention policies need to be revitalised urgently.

Temporal Trends in Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Birthing Individuals Aged 15 to 44 Years in the United States, 2007 to 2019.

Background Adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) (hypertensive disorders of pregnancy [HDP], preterm delivery [PTD], or low birth weight [LBW]) are associated adverse maternal and offspring cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, we sought to describe nationwide temporal trends in the burden of each APO (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019 to inform strategies to optimize maternal and offspring health outcomes. Methods and Results We performed a serial cross-sectional analysis of APO subtypes (HDP, PTD, LBW) from 2007 to 2019. We included maternal data from all live births that occurred in the United States using the National Center for Health Statistics Natality Files. We quantified age-standardized and age-specific rates of APOs per 1000 live births and their respective mean annual percentage change. All analyses were stratified by self-report of maternal race and ethnicity. Among 51 685 525 live births included, 15% were to non-Hispanic Black individuals, 24% Hispanic individuals, and 6% Asian individuals. Between 2007 and 2019, age standardized HDP rates approximately doubled, from 38.4 (38.2-38.6) to 77.8 (77.5-78.1) per 1000 live births. A significant inflection point was observed in 2014, with an acceleration in the rate of increase of HDP from 2007 to 2014 (+4.1% per year [3.6-4.7]) to 2014 to 2019 (+9.1% per year [8.1-10.1]). Rates of PTD and LBW increased significantly when co-occurring in the same pregnancy with HDP. Absolute rates of APOs were higher in non-Hispanic Black individuals and in older age groups. However, similar relative increases were seen across all age,racial and ethnic groups. Conclusions In aggregate, APOs now complicate nearly 1 in 5 live births. Incidence of HDP has increased significantly between 2007 and 2019 and contributed to the reversal of favorable trends in PTD and LBW. Similar patterns were observed in all age groups, suggesting that increasing maternal age at pregnancy does not account for these trends. Black-White disparities persisted throughout the study period.

Estimating the health and economic effects of the voluntary sodium reduction targets in Brazil: microsimulation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Excessive sodium consumption is one of the leading dietary risk factors for non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD), mediated by high blood pressure. Brazil has implemented voluntary sodium reduction targets with food industries since 2011. This study aimed to analyse the potential health and economic impact of these sodium reduction targets in Brazil from 2013 to 2032. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation of a close-to-reality synthetic population (IMPACTNCD-BR) to evaluate the potential health benefits of setting voluntary upper limits for sodium content as part of the Brazilian government strategy. The model estimates CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, and disease treatment costs. Model inputs were informed by the 2013 National Health Survey, the 2008-2009 Household Budget Survey, and high-quality meta-analyses, assuming that all individuals were exposed to the policy proportionally to their sodium intake from processed food. Costs included costs of the National Health System on CVD treatment and informal care costs. The primary outcome measures of the model are cardiovascular disease cases and deaths prevented or postponed over 20 years (2013-2032), stratified by age and sex. RESULTS: The study found that the application of the Brazilian voluntary sodium targets for packaged foods between 2013 and 2032 could prevent or postpone approximately 110,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty intervals (UI): 28,000 to 260,000) among men and 70,000 cases among women (95% UI: 16,000 to 170,000), and also prevent or postpone approximately 2600 CVD deaths (95% UI: - 1000 to 11,000), 55% in men. The policy could also produce a net cost saving of approximately US$ 220 million (95% UI: US$ 54 to 520 million) in medical costs to the Brazilian National Health System for the treatment of CHD and stroke and save approximately US$ 71 million (95% UI: US$ 17 to170 million) in informal costs. CONCLUSION: Brazilian voluntary sodium targets could generate substantial health and economic impacts. The reduction in sodium intake that was likely achieved from the voluntary targets indicates that sodium reduction in Brazil must go further and faster to achieve the national and World Health Organization goals for sodium intake.

Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Models: Protocol for a Systematic Methodological Review.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco control models are mathematical models predicting tobacco-related outcomes in defined populations. The policy simulation model is considered as a subcategory of tobacco control models simulating the potential outcomes of tobacco control policy options. However, we could not identify any existing tool specifically designed to assess the quality of tobacco control models. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this systematic methodology review are to: (1) identify best modeling practices, (2) highlight common pitfalls, and (3) develop recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models. Crucially, these recommendations can empower model users to assess the quality of current and future modeling studies, potentially leading to better tobacco policy decision-making for the public. This protocol describes the planned systematic review stages, paper inclusion and exclusion criteria, data extraction, and analysis. METHODS: Two reviewers searched five databases (Embase, EconLit, PsycINFO, PubMed, and CINAHL Plus) to identify eligible studies published between July 2013 and August 2019. We included papers projecting tobacco-related outcomes with a focus on tobacco control policies in any population and setting. Eligible papers were independently screened by two reviewers. The data extraction form was designed and piloted to extract model structure, data sources, transparency, validation, and other qualities. We will use a narrative synthesis to present the results by summarizing model trends, analyzing model approaches, and reporting data input and result quality. We will propose recommendations to assess the quality of tobacco control policy simulation models using the findings from this review and related literature. RESULTS: Data collection is in progress. Results are expected to be completed and submitted for publication by April 2021. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic methodological review will summarize the best practices and pitfalls existing among tobacco control policy simulation models and present a recommendation list of a high-quality tobacco control simulation model. A more standardized and quality-assured tobacco control policy simulation model will benefit modelers, policymakers, and the public on both model building and decision making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42020178146; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020178146. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/26854.

Modelling tool to support decision-making in the NHS Health Check programme: workshops, systematic review and co-production with users.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England commission the NHS Health Check programme to invite everyone aged 40-74 years without pre-existing conditions for risk assessment and eventual intervention, if needed. However, the programme's effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity impact remain uncertain. AIM: To develop a validated open-access flexible web-based model that enables local commissioners to quantify the cost-effectiveness and potential for equitable population health gain of the NHS Health Check programme. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were as follows: (1) co-produce with stakeholders the desirable features of the user-friendly model; (2) update the evidence base to support model and scenario development; (3) further develop our computational model to allow for developments and changes to the NHS Health Check programme and the diseases it addresses; (4) assess the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and equity of alternative strategies for implementation to illustrate the use of the tool; and (5) propose a sustainability and implementation plan to deploy our user-friendly computational model at the local level. DESIGN: Co-production workshops surveying the best-performing local authorities and a systematic literature review of strategies to increase uptake of screening programmes informed model use and development. We then co-produced the workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) model to estimate the health, economic and equity impact of different NHS Health Check programme implementations, using illustrative-use cases. SETTING: Local authorities in England. PARTICIPANTS: Stakeholders from local authorities, Public Health England, the NHS, the British Heart Foundation, academia and other organisations participated in the workshops. For the local authorities survey, we invited 16 of the best-performing local authorities in England. INTERVENTIONS: The user interface allows users to vary key parameters that represent programme activities (i.e. invitation, uptake, prescriptions and referrals). Scenarios can be compared with each other. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Disease cases and case-years prevented or postponed, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, net monetary benefit and change in slope index of inequality. RESULTS: The survey of best-performing local authorities revealed a diversity of effective approaches to maximise the coverage and uptake of NHS Health Check programme, with no distinct 'best buy'. The umbrella literature review identified a range of effective single interventions. However, these generally need to be combined to maximally improve uptake and health gains. A validated dynamic, stochastic microsimulation model, built on robust epidemiology, enabled service options analysis. Analyses of three contrasting illustrative cases estimated the health, economic and equity impact of optimising the Health Checks, and the added value of obtaining detailed local data. Optimising the programme in Liverpool can become cost-effective and equitable, but simply changing the invitation method will require other programme changes to improve its performance. Detailed data inputs can benefit local analysis. LIMITATIONS: Although the approach is extremely flexible, it is complex and requires substantial amounts of data, alongside expertise to both maintain and run. CONCLUSIONS: Our project showed that the workHORSE model could be used to estimate the health, economic and equity impact comprehensively at local authority level. It has the potential for further development as a commissioning tool and to stimulate broader discussions on the role of these tools in real-world decision-making. FUTURE WORK: Future work should focus on improving user interactions with the model, modelling simulation standards, and adapting workHORSE for evaluation, design and implementation support. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019132087. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 35. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The NHS Health Check programme is available for adults aged 40­74 years in England to find the early risk of heart disease, cancers, lung disease and dementia, and lower that risk. However, some studies have suggested that the current scheme could perhaps be improved. We systematically looked at previous studies to understand what makes a screening programme successful. We also contacted local authorities with the best NHS Health Check programmes to find out how they were being delivered so well. The most successful local authorities highlighted a wide variety of methods for achieving success. All had concrete plans in place for delivery, including different approaches for encouraging more adults to participate. We further developed our existing computer model into a web-based tool [workHORSE (working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment)]. This tool can help those responsible for commissioning NHS Health Checks to further improve the delivery of their local programme. We held four workshops with relevant professionals to develop the workHORSE model. These workshops resulted in a useful 'real-world' tool for local commissioners: a tool that can calculate the current and potential future benefits of different programmes. We used the model to show how commissioners can explore and compare a variety of different programmes. We found that combining several improvements can be useful. However, this provides modest benefits in improving health and value for money. At the same time, the impact on reducing inequalities is less clear and depends on the interventions used. Our results suggest that: a variety of successful approaches can be used to help increase the uptake of screening programmes such as NHS Health Checksjointly developing a computer model with end-users leads to a more user-friendly and relevant model to improve the programmethe stage is now set for further work to identify the best approach in each local area.

The case for developing a cohesive systems approach to research across unhealthy commodity industries.

OBJECTIVES: Most non-communicable diseases are preventable and largely driven by the consumption of harmful products, such as tobacco, alcohol, gambling and ultra-processed food and drink products, collectively termed unhealthy commodities. This paper explores the links between unhealthy commodity industries (UCIs), analyses the extent of alignment across their corporate political strategies, and proposes a cohesive systems approach to research across UCIs. METHODS: We held an expert consultation on analysing the involvement of UCIs in public health policy, conducted an analysis of business links across UCIs, and employed taxonomies of corporate political activity to collate, compare and illustrate strategies employed by the alcohol, ultra-processed food and drink products, tobacco and gambling industries. RESULTS: There are clear commonalities across UCIs' strategies in shaping evidence, employing narratives and framing techniques, constituency building and policy substitution. There is also consistent evidence of business links between UCIs, as well as complex relationships with government agencies, often allowing UCIs to engage in policy-making forums. This knowledge indicates that the role of all UCIs in public health policy would benefit from a common approach to analysis. This enables the development of a theoretical framework for understanding how UCIs influence the policy process. It highlights the need for a deeper and broader understanding of conflicts of interests and how to avoid them; and a broader conception of what constitutes strong evidence generated by a wider range of research types. CONCLUSION: UCIs employ shared strategies to shape public health policy, protecting business interests, and thereby contributing to the perpetuation of non-communicable diseases. A cohesive systems approach to research across UCIs is required to deepen shared understanding of this complex and interconnected area and also to inform a more effective and coherent response.

The QUEST for Effective and Equitable Policies to Prevent Non-communicable Diseases: Co-Production Lessons From Stakeholder Workshops.

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for some 90% of premature UK deaths, most being preventable. However, the systems driving NCDs are complex. This complexity can make NCD prevention strategies difficult to develop and implement. We therefore aimed to explore with key stakeholders the upstream policies needed to prevent NCDs and related inequalities. METHODS: We developed a theory-based co-production process and used a mixed methods approach to engage with policy- and decision-makers from across the United Kingdom in a series of 4 workshops, to better understand and respond to the complex systems in which they act. The first and fourth workshops (London) aimed to better understand the public health policy agenda and effective methods for co-production, communication and dissemination. In workshops 2 and 3 (Liverpool and Glasgow), we used nominal group techniques to identify policy issues and equitable prevention strategies, we prioritised emerging policy options for NCD prevention, using the MoSCoW approach. RESULTS: We engaged with 43 diverse stakeholders. They identified 'healthy environment' as an important emerging area. Reducing NCDs and inequalities was identified as important, underpinned by a frustration relating to the evidence/ policy gap. Evidence for NCD risk factor epidemiology was perceived as strong, the evidence underpinning the best NCD prevention policy interventions was considered patchier and more contested around the social, commercial and technological determinants of health. A comprehensive communications strategy was considered essential. The contribution of 'elite actors' (ministers, public sector leaders) was seen as key to the success of NCD prevention policies. CONCLUSION: NCDs are generated by complex adaptive systems. Early engagement of diverse stakeholders in a theory-based co-production process can provide valuable context and relevance. Subsequent partnership-working will then be essential to develop, disseminate and implement the most effective NCD prevention strategies.

Explaining the increment in coronary heart disease mortality in Mexico between 2000 and 2012.

BACKGROUND: Mexico is still in the growing phase of the epidemic of coronary heart disease (CHD), with mortality increasing by 48% since 1980. However, no studies have analyzed the drivers of these trends. We aimed to model CHD deaths between 2000 and 2012 in Mexico and to quantify the proportion of the mortality change attributable to advances in medical treatments and to changes in population-wide cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis using the previously validated IMPACT model to explain observed changes in CHD mortality in Mexican adults. The model integrates nationwide data at two-time points (2000 and 2012) to quantify the effects on CHD mortality attributable to changes in risk factors and therapeutic trends. RESULTS: From 2000 to 2012, CHD mortality rates increased by 33.8% in men and by 22.8% in women. The IMPACT model explained 71% of the CHD mortality increase. Most of the mortality increases could be attributed to increases in population risk factors, such as diabetes (43%), physical inactivity (28%) and total cholesterol (24%). Improvements in medical and surgical treatments together prevented or postponed 40.3% of deaths; 10% was attributable to improvements in secondary prevention treatments following MI, while 5.3% to community heart failure treatments. CONCLUSIONS: CHD mortality in Mexico is increasing due to adverse trends in major risk factors and suboptimal use of CHD treatments. Population-level interventions to reduce CHD risk factors are urgently needed, along with increased access and equitable distribution of therapies.

Adverse Trends in Premature Cardiometabolic Mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2018.

Background Life expectancy in the United States has recently declined, in part attributable to premature cardiometabolic mortality. We characterized national trends in premature cardiometabolic mortality, overall, and by race-sex groups. Methods and Results Using death certificates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we quantified premature deaths (<65 years of age) from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus from 1999 to 2018. We calculated age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) and years of potential life lost (YPLL) from each cardiometabolic cause occurring at <65 years of age. We used Joinpoint regression to identify an inflection point in overall cardiometabolic AAMR trends. Average annual percent change in AAMRs and YPLL was quantified before and after the identified inflection point. From 1999 to 2018, annual premature deaths from heart disease (117 880 to 128 832), cerebrovascular disease (18 765 to 20 565), and diabetes mellitus (16 553 to 24 758) as an underlying cause of death increased. By 2018, 19.7% of all heart disease deaths, 13.9% of all cerebrovascular disease deaths, and 29.1% of all diabetes mellitus deaths were premature. AAMRs and YPLL from heart disease and cerebrovascular disease declined until the inflection point identified in 2011, then remained unchanged through 2018. Conversely, AAMRs and YPLL from diabetes mellitus did not change through 2011, then increased through 2018. Black men and women had higher AAMRs and greater YPLL for each cardiometabolic cause compared with White men and women, respectively. Conclusions Over one-fifth of cardiometabolic deaths occurred at <65 years of age. Recent stagnation in cardiometabolic AAMRs and YPLL are compounded by persistent racial disparities.

Potential impacts of post-Brexit agricultural policy on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Current proposals for post-Brexit agricultural policy do not explicitly incorporate public health goals. The revised agricultural policy may be an opportunity to improve population health by supporting domestic production and consumption of fruits and vegetables (F&V). This study aims to quantify the potential impacts of a post-Brexit agricultural policy that increases land allocated to F&V on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and inequalities in England, between 2021 to 2030. METHODS: We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to translate changes in land allocated to F&V into changes in F&V intake and associated CVD deaths, stratified by age, sex and Index of Multiple Deprivation. The model combined data on F&V agriculture, waste, purchases and intake, CVD mortality projections and appropriate relative risks. We modelled two scenarios, assuming that land allocated to F&V would gradually increase to 10% and 20% of land suitable for F&V production. RESULTS: We found that increasing land use for F&V production to 10% and 20% of suitable land would increase fruit intake by approximately 3.7% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.6% to 8.6%) and 17.4% (9.1% to 36.9%), and vegetable intake by approximately 7.8% (4.2% to 13.7%) and 37% (24.3% to 55.7%), respectively, in 2030. This would prevent or postpone approximately 3890 (1950 to 7080) and 18 010 (9840 to 28 870) CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, under the first and second scenario, respectively. Both scenarios would reduce inequalities, with 16% of prevented or postponed deaths occurring among the least deprived compared with 22% among the most deprived. CONCLUSION: Post-Brexit agricultural policy presents an important opportunity to improve dietary intake and associated cardiovascular mortality by supporting domestic production of F&V as part of a comprehensive strategy that intervenes across the supply chain.

Evaluating stakeholder involvement in building a decision support tool for NHS health checks: co-producing the WorkHORSE study.

BACKGROUND: Stakeholder engagement is being increasingly recognised as an important way to achieving impact in public health. The WorkHORSE (Working Health Outcomes Research Simulation Environment) project was designed to continuously engage with stakeholders to inform the development of an open access modelling tool to enable commissioners to quantify the potential cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check Programme. An objective of the project was to evaluate the involvement of stakeholders in co-producing the WorkHORSE computer modelling tool and examine how they perceived their involvement in the model building process and ultimately contributed to the strengthening and relevance of the modelling tool. METHODS: We identified stakeholders using our extensive networks and snowballing techniques. Iterative development of the decision support modelling tool was informed through engaging with stakeholders during four workshops. We used detailed scripts facilitating open discussion and opportunities for stakeholders to provide additional feedback subsequently. At the end of each workshop, stakeholders and the research team completed questionnaires to explore their views and experiences throughout the process. RESULTS: 30 stakeholders participated, of which 15 attended two or more workshops. They spanned local (NHS commissioners, GPs, local authorities and academics), third sector and national organisations including Public Health England. Stakeholders felt valued, and commended the involvement of practitioners in the iterative process. Major reasons for attending included: being able to influence development, and having insight and understanding of what the tool could include, and how it would work in practice. Researchers saw the process as an opportunity for developing a common language and trust in the end product, and ensuring the support tool was transparent. The workshops acted as a reality check ensuring model scenarios and outputs were relevant and fit for purpose. CONCLUSIONS: Computational modellers rarely consult with end users when developing tools to inform decision-making. The added value of co-production (continuing collaboration and iteration with stakeholders) enabled modellers to produce a "real-world" operational tool. Likewise, stakeholders had increased confidence in the decision support tool's development and applicability in practice.